Forecasting, is projecting future demands of our products, on the basis of historical data. A tacit assumption is that to some extent, the historical data would tend to be replicated or somehow be repeated. If it is not really so, because the demand is not replicable, then the data for each period must undergo some corrective adjustments, prior to its use in the demand forecasting model. The rest of the computations will then be mechanically done through computer softwares and mathematical formulas. Please don’t just plug into your model the historical data. You must understand the characteristics of your demand data first.
If you need some more help in this area, please write down your comments for this blog or visit http://businessmanage.sosblog.com or http://www.linkedin.com/in/sannysuerte
The author of this article is a licensed mechanical engineer in the Philippines, and a Masters degree holder in business management, major in Finance. He is a Doctoral candidate in business administration (DBA) at De La Salle University, Manila
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Reflections!
Reflections!
No matter how much a lazy person may want something, he will never get it. A hard worker will get everything he wants.
Proverb 13: 4
Reflections!
The righteous are like a light shining brightly; the wicked are like a lamp flickering out.
Proverb 13:9
Reflections!
Hard work will give you power; being lazy will make you a slave.
Proverb 12:24
No matter how much a lazy person may want something, he will never get it. A hard worker will get everything he wants.
Proverb 13: 4
Reflections!
The righteous are like a light shining brightly; the wicked are like a lamp flickering out.
Proverb 13:9
Reflections!
Hard work will give you power; being lazy will make you a slave.
Proverb 12:24
Friday, October 30, 2009
Perfect God!
God!
This God-how perfect are his deeds! How dependable his words! He is like a shield for all who seek his protection. The Lord alone is God; God alone is our defense.
Psalm 18:30-31
This God-how perfect are his deeds! How dependable his words! He is like a shield for all who seek his protection. The Lord alone is God; God alone is our defense.
Psalm 18:30-31
Hold on to wisdom!
Wisdom!
Son, hold on to your wisdom and insight. Never let them get away from you. They will provide you with life—a pleasant and happy life.
Proverb 3:21-22
Son, hold on to your wisdom and insight. Never let them get away from you. They will provide you with life—a pleasant and happy life.
Proverb 3:21-22
Never, never, never! No!
Never accept "No" for an Answer!
I was reviewing my notes one day, and something reminded me about my boss for some time, who follows the above stated principle. The man never accepted “No” for an answer from any of his subordinates, and presumably from any of his other experiences. The man , became a celebrity and acquired so much wealth during his stint in the company. Would you want to try that yourself? I did use that principle so many times in my life, and it made waves of benefits, and plenty of things accomplished. So, the next time you are faced with a major obstacle, in your activity, think of this same principle. It may just save your project.
I was reviewing my notes one day, and something reminded me about my boss for some time, who follows the above stated principle. The man never accepted “No” for an answer from any of his subordinates, and presumably from any of his other experiences. The man , became a celebrity and acquired so much wealth during his stint in the company. Would you want to try that yourself? I did use that principle so many times in my life, and it made waves of benefits, and plenty of things accomplished. So, the next time you are faced with a major obstacle, in your activity, think of this same principle. It may just save your project.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Praises!
A Song of Praise!
How good it is to give thanks to you, O Lord, to sing in your honor, O most high God, to proclaim your constant Love every morning, and your faithfulness every night…Your mighty deeds, O Lord, make me glad; because of what you have done, I sing for joy.
Psalm 92: 1-4
How good it is to give thanks to you, O Lord, to sing in your honor, O most high God, to proclaim your constant Love every morning, and your faithfulness every night…Your mighty deeds, O Lord, make me glad; because of what you have done, I sing for joy.
Psalm 92: 1-4
Thoughts!
Thoughts of what you want!
When we think of something we want , and we keep thinking about it, because that is what we really want, we tend to act, and do things gearing towards that thing that we want, and soon, almost everything by coincidence happens according to what we want.
That is a little known secret since time immemorial, hidden from those who only sees what is visible to the eye. What a pleasant universe, we are all in! We should therefore train our thoughts properly for the impact of the subconscious is high and mighty and can create the things that are desired by the thoughts we have..
When we think of something we want , and we keep thinking about it, because that is what we really want, we tend to act, and do things gearing towards that thing that we want, and soon, almost everything by coincidence happens according to what we want.
That is a little known secret since time immemorial, hidden from those who only sees what is visible to the eye. What a pleasant universe, we are all in! We should therefore train our thoughts properly for the impact of the subconscious is high and mighty and can create the things that are desired by the thoughts we have..
Loving God!
Loving God!
We love, because God first loved us. If someone says he loves God, but hates his brother, he is a liar. For he can not love God, whom he has not seen, if he does not love his brother, whom he has seen. The command that Christ has given us is this: whoever loves God must love his brother also.
1John 4: 19-21.
We love, because God first loved us. If someone says he loves God, but hates his brother, he is a liar. For he can not love God, whom he has not seen, if he does not love his brother, whom he has seen. The command that Christ has given us is this: whoever loves God must love his brother also.
1John 4: 19-21.
Rebels!
Rebellious People!
The Lord spoke to me. “Mortal man,” He said, “you are living among rebellious people. They have eyes, but they see nothing; they have ears, but they hear nothing, because they are rebellious.”
Ezekiel 12:1-2
The Lord spoke to me. “Mortal man,” He said, “you are living among rebellious people. They have eyes, but they see nothing; they have ears, but they hear nothing, because they are rebellious.”
Ezekiel 12:1-2
Success!
Success!
There is a saying that runs like this: “If you leave this world better than you have found it, then you are a success.” It is imperative therefore that you must contribute something to the world that you have found, and make it a better one, for you to consider yourself successful.
There is a saying that runs like this: “If you leave this world better than you have found it, then you are a success.” It is imperative therefore that you must contribute something to the world that you have found, and make it a better one, for you to consider yourself successful.
Treated as Grown up!
Being treated as a Grown Up!
Would you like to be treated as a grown up person? Then, act like one! Would you like others to respect you? Then, learn to respect them. Would you like to be treated as a learned person, then learn to be one.
Would you like to be treated as a grown up person? Then, act like one! Would you like others to respect you? Then, learn to respect them. Would you like to be treated as a learned person, then learn to be one.
Growing! Learning!
Growing Up and learning!
Growing up should be accompanied by learning. Learning enables survival. As the world around us becomes more sophisticated, all the more we need to learn many things. Learning, however should start within our closest or nearest sphere of influence. One of these is our very own lifestyle and our very own self. Do you know that a poor lifestyle could be the cause of some of our health problems? From one health magazine, that I came across with, it was highlighted that excessive weight alone can be responsible for painful knees, high blood pressure, diabetes, fatigue, etc. , and we know that weight gain could result from too much and poor quality of food intake. Do we then, spend some time to learn more about healthy eating? We should! By learning more about health, healthy eating, nutrition, food supplementation, and following a good lifestyle of work and rest, we start to feel better and enjoy more things made available to us by the Supreme Being.
Growing up should be accompanied by learning. Learning enables survival. As the world around us becomes more sophisticated, all the more we need to learn many things. Learning, however should start within our closest or nearest sphere of influence. One of these is our very own lifestyle and our very own self. Do you know that a poor lifestyle could be the cause of some of our health problems? From one health magazine, that I came across with, it was highlighted that excessive weight alone can be responsible for painful knees, high blood pressure, diabetes, fatigue, etc. , and we know that weight gain could result from too much and poor quality of food intake. Do we then, spend some time to learn more about healthy eating? We should! By learning more about health, healthy eating, nutrition, food supplementation, and following a good lifestyle of work and rest, we start to feel better and enjoy more things made available to us by the Supreme Being.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Treasures! Treasures!
Spiritual Treasure!
Yet we who have his spiritual treasure are like common clay pots, in order to show that the supreme power belongs to God, not to us. We are often troubled, but not crushed; sometimes in doubt but never in despair; there are many enemies, but we are never without a friend; and though badly hurt at times, we are not destroyed.
2 Corinthians 4:7-9
Yet we who have his spiritual treasure are like common clay pots, in order to show that the supreme power belongs to God, not to us. We are often troubled, but not crushed; sometimes in doubt but never in despair; there are many enemies, but we are never without a friend; and though badly hurt at times, we are not destroyed.
2 Corinthians 4:7-9
Light!
The Light!
The God who said, “Out of darkness the light shall shine!” is the same God who made his light shine in our hearts, to bring us the knowledge of God’s glory shining in the face of Christ.
2 Corinthians 4: 6
The God who said, “Out of darkness the light shall shine!” is the same God who made his light shine in our hearts, to bring us the knowledge of God’s glory shining in the face of Christ.
2 Corinthians 4: 6
Health and what you eat!
A healthy Diet!
What we eat has an enormous effect on our health. Do you believe that? If you do, then make sure that you be selective on what you eat. Knowing yourself is part of better control of your health. We can significantly reduce developing many types of illness by moderate exercise and a healthy diet.
What we eat has an enormous effect on our health. Do you believe that? If you do, then make sure that you be selective on what you eat. Knowing yourself is part of better control of your health. We can significantly reduce developing many types of illness by moderate exercise and a healthy diet.
Monday, October 26, 2009
God! Man!
God and Man!
Then God said, “And now we will make human beings; they will be like us and resemble us. They will have power over the fish, the birds, and all animals, domestic and wild, large and small.” So, God created human beings, making them to be like himself.
Genesis 1:26-27
Then God said, “And now we will make human beings; they will be like us and resemble us. They will have power over the fish, the birds, and all animals, domestic and wild, large and small.” So, God created human beings, making them to be like himself.
Genesis 1:26-27
Your Lifestyle!
Lifestyle!
Do you know that the kind of lifestyle you have affects your health? According to some of the authorities on the subject, more than 40% of patients with hypertension could get off their medication, if they would follow simple lifestyle changes. Think of your health. Have your lifestyle changed. Growing and getting old is not equal to being sick
Do you know that the kind of lifestyle you have affects your health? According to some of the authorities on the subject, more than 40% of patients with hypertension could get off their medication, if they would follow simple lifestyle changes. Think of your health. Have your lifestyle changed. Growing and getting old is not equal to being sick
The Only God!
The only God!
The Lord who rules and protects Israel, the Lord Almighty, has this to say:” I am the first, the last, the only God; there is no other god but me.
Isaiah 44:6
The Lord who rules and protects Israel, the Lord Almighty, has this to say:” I am the first, the last, the only God; there is no other god but me.
Isaiah 44:6
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Principles! Principles! Principles!
Why Principles are Important!
Life is full of paradox. It is like being in an ocean or a jungle. A lot of things can happen requiring a decision. If one does not have belief in certain principles, he floats like a Jelly fish, getting carried by the ocean current, wherever it goes, and whenever it likes. It is like, being a ship without a rudder and a compass, and no motive power at all. It is a terrible situation to be in. To live life in full, and be happy, one must believe in good principles to walk thru life. It may create some external challenges, but one is always at peace with his inner self and his Creator. After all, man does not live by bread alone, but by every Word that comes from the mouth of God. The man who lives a just life, truly is under the employ of the almighty, and is adequately provided.
Life is full of paradox. It is like being in an ocean or a jungle. A lot of things can happen requiring a decision. If one does not have belief in certain principles, he floats like a Jelly fish, getting carried by the ocean current, wherever it goes, and whenever it likes. It is like, being a ship without a rudder and a compass, and no motive power at all. It is a terrible situation to be in. To live life in full, and be happy, one must believe in good principles to walk thru life. It may create some external challenges, but one is always at peace with his inner self and his Creator. After all, man does not live by bread alone, but by every Word that comes from the mouth of God. The man who lives a just life, truly is under the employ of the almighty, and is adequately provided.
A Tree! The Fruit!
A Tree and Its Fruits!
To have good fruit you must have a healthy tree; if you have a poor tree, you will have bad fruit. A tree is known by the kind of fruit it bears.
Mathew 12:33
To have good fruit you must have a healthy tree; if you have a poor tree, you will have bad fruit. A tree is known by the kind of fruit it bears.
Mathew 12:33
How we eat?
How do we eat? How do we Live?
How do ants eat the cake on the table? One bite at a time. That’s how we should eat. A bite at a time. That’s how we study. One topic at a time, one page at a time, one chapter at a time. How do we build a structure? One piece at a time. How should we live and grow? One day at a time. We progress by each day and we toil, worry and take care of the concerns of today. Yesterday is done, and tomorrow is another day to look forward to. Until tomorrow comes, there is little we can do to live it or change its circumstances, other than to prepare at best, what is needed for tomorrow that can be done today.
How do ants eat the cake on the table? One bite at a time. That’s how we should eat. A bite at a time. That’s how we study. One topic at a time, one page at a time, one chapter at a time. How do we build a structure? One piece at a time. How should we live and grow? One day at a time. We progress by each day and we toil, worry and take care of the concerns of today. Yesterday is done, and tomorrow is another day to look forward to. Until tomorrow comes, there is little we can do to live it or change its circumstances, other than to prepare at best, what is needed for tomorrow that can be done today.
Sons and Daughters!
Reflections!
Have nothing to do with what is unclean, and I will accept you. I will be your father, and you shall be my sons and daughters, says the Lord Almighty.
Corinthians 6: 17-18
Have nothing to do with what is unclean, and I will accept you. I will be your father, and you shall be my sons and daughters, says the Lord Almighty.
Corinthians 6: 17-18
Friday, October 23, 2009
Grow some more!
Is Growing Up for Kids?
Growing up is a sign of life. A sign of improvement. It is for kids, as well as adults. So obvious in fact, seemingly, but many fail to notice it. Everyone has to grow up in many ways, especially in the way we think, and perceive the world around us. Cast your eyes farther around you towards the horizon, and you will see life better and grow some more.
Growing up is a sign of life. A sign of improvement. It is for kids, as well as adults. So obvious in fact, seemingly, but many fail to notice it. Everyone has to grow up in many ways, especially in the way we think, and perceive the world around us. Cast your eyes farther around you towards the horizon, and you will see life better and grow some more.
The Laws!
The Laws of the Lord!
The Law of the Lord is perfect; it gives new strength. The commands of the Lord are trustworthy, giving wisdom to those who lack it. The Laws of the Lord are right, and those who obey them are happy.The commands of the Lord are just, and give understanding to the mind.
Psalms:7-8
The Law of the Lord is perfect; it gives new strength. The commands of the Lord are trustworthy, giving wisdom to those who lack it. The Laws of the Lord are right, and those who obey them are happy.The commands of the Lord are just, and give understanding to the mind.
Psalms:7-8
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Grow overnight? Patience , a Virtue.
Growing Up Overnight! Patience is a Virtue.
This is a dream that everyone has for his kids. But, when they have grown up, you miss their being kids, so you start pampering your grand children, and sometimes overdoing it.
There’s no such thing as growing up overnight. Almost everything has some kind of a time constant. It takes time to bear a child, a time to have him/her learn to talk, a time to learn to walk, reading, writing, go thru school, etc. A tree does not grow and bear fruit, overnight. We know this, but we continue to wish times are shorter, and when you are there, you wish it to be longer. Patience is a virtue. Don’t lose it.
This is a dream that everyone has for his kids. But, when they have grown up, you miss their being kids, so you start pampering your grand children, and sometimes overdoing it.
There’s no such thing as growing up overnight. Almost everything has some kind of a time constant. It takes time to bear a child, a time to have him/her learn to talk, a time to learn to walk, reading, writing, go thru school, etc. A tree does not grow and bear fruit, overnight. We know this, but we continue to wish times are shorter, and when you are there, you wish it to be longer. Patience is a virtue. Don’t lose it.
Reflections! Fortunate!
Reflections!
As for you, how fortunate you are! Your eyes see and your ears hear. I assure you that many prophets and many of God’s people wanted very much to see what you see, but they could not, and to hear what you hear, but they did not.
Mathew 13:16-17
As for you, how fortunate you are! Your eyes see and your ears hear. I assure you that many prophets and many of God’s people wanted very much to see what you see, but they could not, and to hear what you hear, but they did not.
Mathew 13:16-17
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
The Reward for Keeping the Sabbath!
Reflections!
The Reward for Keeping the Sabbath:
The Lord says, “If you treat the Sabbath as sacred and do not pursue your own interests on that day; if you value my holy day and honor it by not traveling, working, or talking idly on that day, then you will find the joy that comes from serving me. I will make you honored all over the world, and you will enjoy the land I gave to your ancestor, Jacob. I the Lord, have spoken.”
ISAIAH 58: 13-14
The Reward for Keeping the Sabbath:
The Lord says, “If you treat the Sabbath as sacred and do not pursue your own interests on that day; if you value my holy day and honor it by not traveling, working, or talking idly on that day, then you will find the joy that comes from serving me. I will make you honored all over the world, and you will enjoy the land I gave to your ancestor, Jacob. I the Lord, have spoken.”
ISAIAH 58: 13-14
Planning and forecasting!
There are many techniques used in forecasting. These are covered in the area of study of Operations Research (OR) or Business Operations Optimization. Two main stream categories are commonly in use, (a)Time Series Models, and (b) the Multiple Linear Regression models.
These techniques, are useful for mathematical prediction purposes, but should not be used blindly. A good understanding of why the past demand behaved the way it did, must be understood as well, and that projections into the future, should be tempered by the possible effect of future events or business conditions, relative to the products or service being analyzed. Remember, flexibility is always part of the key for a successful business.
These techniques, are useful for mathematical prediction purposes, but should not be used blindly. A good understanding of why the past demand behaved the way it did, must be understood as well, and that projections into the future, should be tempered by the possible effect of future events or business conditions, relative to the products or service being analyzed. Remember, flexibility is always part of the key for a successful business.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
On Riches! The Way Towards It!
Riches!
"The men and women who practice the foregoing instructions will
Certainly get rich, and the riches they receive will be in exact
proportion to the definiteness of their vision, the fixity of their
purpose, the steadiness of their faith, and the depth of their
gratitude."
— Wallace D. Wattles
"The men and women who practice the foregoing instructions will
Certainly get rich, and the riches they receive will be in exact
proportion to the definiteness of their vision, the fixity of their
purpose, the steadiness of their faith, and the depth of their
gratitude."
— Wallace D. Wattles
Reflections!
Reflections!
10.20.09
I waited patiently for the Lord’s help; then He listened to me and heard my cry. He pulled me out of a dangerous pit, out of the deadly quicksand. He set me safely on a rock, and made me secure.
Psalm 40: 1-2
The Unique Gift!
Man has been endowed a very unique gift. He can train his thoughts and create something out of the universal vast resources that had been created and provided for him by the Supreme Being. He was made in the likeness and image of God, and was told that, if only his faith is as large as a mustard seed, he can command a tree to uproot itself, and replant itself, somewhere. We often think in terms of the resources that are obvious, and visible to us. That’s regular thinking. Regular thinking, however is not in the vocabulary of exceptional beings. It is the way of the ordinary and the traditional conformist.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Reflections!
Light shines on the righteous, and gladness on the good. All you that are righteous be glad, because of what the Lord has done! Remember what the holy God has done and give thanks to Him!-
Psalm 97:11-12
Starting today, Oct 19, 2009 we will include some reflections to help you live through life in full!
Psalm 97:11-12
Starting today, Oct 19, 2009 we will include some reflections to help you live through life in full!
Growing Up! Success in Life!
Growing Up and Success in Life!
As we grow up, we often get advices about living, about success, and about many things in life, from parents, teachers and mentors. Life is how you make it, is what some would get as an advice. How do you ensure success then in what you do? And how do you make a successful life? Well, many advices had been uttered in this regard, and always as ever, the very first questions on where you are intending to go, and where you are now, are discussed at the very first tee? For one to be successful, one must therefore know what he/she is trying to achieve. Have you heard this before? True. Without knowing your target end state, you can never know, and measure your success. I mean real success. Knowing where you intend to go, would help you measure, how far or nearer you are to that point of destination. Then, you know, whether you are progressing, succeeding or stagnating.
As we grow up, we often get advices about living, about success, and about many things in life, from parents, teachers and mentors. Life is how you make it, is what some would get as an advice. How do you ensure success then in what you do? And how do you make a successful life? Well, many advices had been uttered in this regard, and always as ever, the very first questions on where you are intending to go, and where you are now, are discussed at the very first tee? For one to be successful, one must therefore know what he/she is trying to achieve. Have you heard this before? True. Without knowing your target end state, you can never know, and measure your success. I mean real success. Knowing where you intend to go, would help you measure, how far or nearer you are to that point of destination. Then, you know, whether you are progressing, succeeding or stagnating.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Learning! Growing!
Learning and Growing!
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Getting Back to work Fast!
Getting back to work fast!
Some people these days lose their jobs, out of reasons that do not really concern their skills and circumstances. In short, things happen, because of forces external to them, and none of these could be their fault or of their own doing. Even then, things like these can happen to everyone, and anyone at any time.
What then do you do under this circumstance? Well, the thing to do, if you don’t know yet, and have not read the writings of Jill Konrath is to get back to work as fast as you could, and she tells you how. One way of course that you can do is do some job hunting again, using the old model of finding a job. But , I think, the better way is for you to follow her non-conventional way of finding a job and get back to work as fast as needed. Better still I think is to quit having a boss, and build your own business using , whatever skills and resources you already have.
If you need to grow in this area again, find Jill Konrath from the internet and read her book. It surely would help you discover more of your inner strengths and self.
Some people these days lose their jobs, out of reasons that do not really concern their skills and circumstances. In short, things happen, because of forces external to them, and none of these could be their fault or of their own doing. Even then, things like these can happen to everyone, and anyone at any time.
What then do you do under this circumstance? Well, the thing to do, if you don’t know yet, and have not read the writings of Jill Konrath is to get back to work as fast as you could, and she tells you how. One way of course that you can do is do some job hunting again, using the old model of finding a job. But , I think, the better way is for you to follow her non-conventional way of finding a job and get back to work as fast as needed. Better still I think is to quit having a boss, and build your own business using , whatever skills and resources you already have.
If you need to grow in this area again, find Jill Konrath from the internet and read her book. It surely would help you discover more of your inner strengths and self.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Growth by Inter-action
Growth by Inter-action.
When we go out into the world around us, we meet different kinds of people. People with different professions and areas of interests. People who knows something about something in varying degrees, and if we just listen to them, we can learn from them. So, given this premise, it is therefore important that we inter-act with people as much as we can. If the nature of our work is for us to be confined in a small room or be at our comfort zone only, let’s find time to inter-act with people at least everyday.That way, we grow by inter-action at least everyday.
When we go out into the world around us, we meet different kinds of people. People with different professions and areas of interests. People who knows something about something in varying degrees, and if we just listen to them, we can learn from them. So, given this premise, it is therefore important that we inter-act with people as much as we can. If the nature of our work is for us to be confined in a small room or be at our comfort zone only, let’s find time to inter-act with people at least everyday.That way, we grow by inter-action at least everyday.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Growing up with simple Courtesies!
Courtesy and growing up!
Do you know what happens when you extend another person proper courtesies and greetings, when you meet? The person being given due courtesies, feels important and elated. He in turn is prompted to return the same courtesy, and the transaction runs better, than when one of the transacting parties feel offended at the very start of the meeting. This is also part of setting the tone of the meeting. Try this one time, you may reap wonderful results. This is part of our growing up. We need to learn many ways about greetings.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Anything under the sun!
Every mind has its own train of thoughts at any given time, and we can think of almost anything we want to do or wish to have. We can therefore talk here about any topic, but focus is also important. The theme for a certain period therefore, will have to be fixed, and tentatively for now, we want to talk about growth. How people grow and transform themselves. Should you have anything to contribute about growing, growth, transformation and getting better in life, Please Tell me More by giving your comments.
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